Asteroid Apophis has the tiniest chance of hitting earth in 2029 – on a Friday the 13th
In a bit of ominous news befitting a Friday the 13th: It turns out that the asteroid Apophis could have a very small chance of colliding into Earth in five years, when it is expected to make a close flyby on April 13, 2029 − yes, a Friday the 13th. But we'd have to be extremely unlucky.
There's still no cause for concern – at least not yet. For the asteroid named for an Egyptian god of chaos to pose a risk to Earth, it would need to be hit by another space rock at just the right angle to redirect the city-killer on a collision course.
Those odds? About one-in-2-billion.
That's according to new findings from astronomer Paul Wiegert, who previously ruled out the possibility of a collision altogether in another study in March. But Wiegert, of Western University in Canada, apparently decided to revisit the possibility of Apophis being struck by small space rocks like the ones that frequently and unpredictably strike Earth.
If that were to happen – and that's a big "if" – a remote chance exists that Apophis could be sent careening into Earth, according to a new study published in August in The Planetary Science Journal.
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Apophis hitting Earth is possible, study finds, but very unlikely
Astronomers have long had their eye on the notorious Apophis, which was initially believed to pose a serious threat to Earth upon its discovery in 2004.
Further observations eventually allowed astronomers in 2021 to rule out the possibility of an impact when Apophis makes the close flyby to Earth in April 2029. There's also no risk during another flyby in 2036, astronomers have said.
But now, Wiegert is claiming that the chance of Apophis hitting Earth isn't completely zero.
In the new study, Weigert used computer models to simulate the likelihood of an undiscovered asteroid hitting Apophis off its course within the next five years and sending it onto a doomed encounter with Earth. Wiegert also analyzed what size an object would need to be to knock Apophis off course and put it on a trajectory to crash into Earth beyond 2029.
The bad news? It would only take a really small space rock (about 11 feet in width) to push the asteroid off its current trajectory and on one that could put it in Earth's path, according to the findings.
The good news? The chance of an unknown asteroid hitting Apophis off its current course at all was less than one-in-a-million. And the odds that such an impact would send it hurtling toward Earth in 2029 was even lower, at one-in-2-billion, Wiegert wrote.
What to know about Apophis:City-killing asteroid to make close flyby to Earth in 2029
Astronomers can observe Apophis again in 2027
It won't be for three years until astronomers will be able to rule out an impact for sure, Wiegert wrote.
The peanut-shaped asteroid measuring nearly a quarter-of-a-mile long is out of sight due to its close proximity to the sun. When it does become visible in 2027, astronomers will be able to observe it to better calculate the odds of a potential nudge in our direction between then and 2029, when Apophis is projected to make the closest approach to Earth that any asteroid of its size ever has – at least, one that scientists have known about in advance.
"The deflection of Apophis by a small asteroid onto a collision course with Earth in 2029 – in addition to being extremely unlikely – will most likely be quickly eliminated as a possibility by simple telescopic observations when Apophis returns to visibility in 2027," Wiegert concluded.
NASA, ESA prepare to study Apophis
Beyond that, both NASA and the European Space Agency have designs on sending uncrewed spacecraft to study Apophis during the flyby in five years.
NASA's OSIRIS-REx, which gathered and returned a sample of asteroid Bennu in September, has been renamed OSIRIS-APophis EXplorer (OSIRIS-APEX) and sent on a trajectory that would allow it to cross paths with the asteroid in 2029. When it has its rendezvous with Apophis in June that year, OSIRIS-APEX will spend 18 months mapping the asteroid’s surface and analyzing its chemical makeup, according to NASA.
The European Space Agency, NASA's counterpart across the pond, plans to launch a spacecraft of its own called Ramses.
The Ramses spacecraft, which must be ready to launch a year ahead of time, will meet Apophis before it passes by Earth and accompany it on its way out of our orbit. During that time, the mission will observe how the surface of the asteroid changes from being in such close proximity to Earth, the European Space Agency said in July.
The expedition is all part of the steps NASA and other space agencies have taken in recent years to protect humanity from threats posed by asteroids and other inbound space rocks, such as comets.
In September 2022, NASA intentionally slammed a spacecraft into the small asteroid Dimorphos at roughly 14,000 mph.
Though Dimorphos posed no threat to Earth, the mission served as the first demonstration of NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART. If an incoming asteroid is ever on a collision course with our planet, the space agency has said that the DART method could prove crucial for deflecting and changing the object's orbital path.
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]