NFL record projections 2023: Which teams will lead the way to Super Bowl 58?
Summertime in the NFL, a period when those Gatorade bottles generally feel more than half-full as optimism tends to run high within teams and among their fans as training camps open everywhere.
After years of predicting win totals throughout the league at this juncture, I've belatedly realized it’s perfectly encapsulated by Journey’s anthemic "Don't Stop Believin'," perhaps more so in 2023 than before most seasons.
Don't stop believin'.
Hold on to that feelin'.
Yes, "that feelin'" can be pervasive in July, when the free agent and rookie additions to each club feel like game changers, coaches and players are still spouting upbeat platitudes about what their team could ultimately become ... but before injuries and a few losses have taken the bloom off the rose.
Some'll win, some will lose.
Some are born to sing the blues.
Ah, the inescapable laws of math. While so many fans (and even media members) view teams in their largely optimized summer states – and maybe err on the side of a 10-, 11- or 12-win (or more) season – the reality is, for everyone of those campaigns, there exists a corresponding five-, six- or seven-win (or worse) stinker.
So, to the (fill in the blank) fans, just because I’m forecasting your team at 6-11, you shouldn’t perceive this as a slap in the face – just an honest assessment and the unavoidable truth that not everyone can be 11-6.
(A note on methodology: Using the most current information amid a few iterations of this exercise, I simply select winners and losers for all 272 regular-season games to arrive at my projections. The outcomes allow me to apply tiebreakers, when needed, to determine and seed the 14-team playoff field.)
And one last nod to Journey …
Just a city boy ...
Born and raised in South Detroit.
He took the midnight train going anywhere.
As for you, pal, maybe don’t book that ticket out of Motown just yet? More on that later as I reveal my 2023 outlook for all 32 teams (numbers in parentheses denote playoff seeding):
NFC EAST
(1) Philadelphia Eagles (12-5): Their schedule, in what projects as a weakened NFC, suggests that a talent-laden team which started 13-1 last season on its way to Super Bowl 57 – and one led by QB Jalen Hurts, the 2022 MVP runner-up who appears to be the conference’s top quarterback – could bolt to another hot start. Reality signals there will be a few speed bumps for a club breaking in two new coordinators, a half-dozen new starters and which owns – overall, based on the 2022 winning percentages of its opponents (.566) – the league’s toughest docket. Still, the reigning conference champs, given present circumstances, seem to have a favorable path back to a No. 1 playoff seed.
(6) Dallas Cowboys (9-8): Their schedule is nearly as brutal as Philly’s, including road games at San Francisco, Buffalo (in December) and Miami. There are also other red flags. LB Micah Parsons says he’s bulking up from his listed weight of 245 pounds, the presumption being he could spend even more time deployed as a pass rusher – and it takes me back to 2013, when Von Miller bulked up to 270 pounds and had his worst season as a pro. But perhaps most concerning is the assertion from head coach Mike McCarthy, Dallas’ new offensive play caller, that "I want to run the damn ball." But with sledgehammer RB Ezekiel Elliott no longer on the roster, can McCarthy – never particularly committed to the run when he ran Green Bay’s offense – realistically follow through with scatback Tony Pollard and a cast of unproven backups? "America’s Team" is talented enough for a third straight playoff trip under McCarthy … but hardly looks primed to reach its first NFC title game (or Super Bowl) since the 1995 season.
Washington Commanders (7-10): There’s already a palpable sense of relief from the city and even players like WR Terry McLaurin following the departure of disgraced and disgraceful former owner Dan Snyder. That alone should lift what had become a perpetual cloud over a locker room and staff constantly forced to answer questions about the controversies sparked by Snyder. Between the lines, Washington has gone 22-27-1 in three regular seasons under HC Ron Rivera. With unproven second-year QB Sam Howell projected to start, hard to envision much more than another seven or eight victories … though this team might resemble the 2022 Jets (7-10), an otherwise imposing roster perhaps just a proven quarterback away from immediate contention.
New York Giants (6-11): Despite a feel-good 2022 – when this decidedly average team did enough to qualify for a wild-card berth and win a playoff game before getting thoroughly embarrassed by the Eagles in the divisional round – it was hard to get too enthused about Big Blue with such a daunting schedule ahead, including 2022 playoff teams in five of the first six weeks. Then the good feels were further diluted by the failure to reach a contractual commitment to franchised RB Saquon Barkley, who very much appears to be the offense’s linchpin after accounting for nearly 30% of its yardage last season. Seems another team may have to carry the Big Apple's hopes in 2023.
NFC NORTH
(3) Detroit Lions (11-6): Only a tiebreaker (a Week 4 loss to Seattle) kept them out of the playoffs last season, when the Lions won eight of their final 10 games. To take the next step forward, Detroit will need to avoid another slow start under third-year HC Dan Campbell – a task obviously made more challenging with an opening-night date at Kansas City. But the guess here is that a revamped secondary – part of a defense that ranked last overall in 2022 – an imposing offensive line, first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs and a boost from second-year WR Jameson Williams (after his six-game gambling suspension ends) will give this club its first division title since 1993.
Chicago Bears (7-10): GM Ryan Poles seemed to improve this roster by a few increments after some substantial free agent investments and by offloading the No. 1 pick of the draft in a transaction that could really pay off in 2024. WR DJ Moore should immediately elevate the league’s worst passing offense, while LBs Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards ought to stabilize a defense that surrendered the league's most points in 2022. But the real lift needs to come from third-year QB Justin Fields, who’s vowed to become the Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer this year … which means he might well become the first NFL player to rush for 1,000 yards while throwing for 4,000. Feels like at least a four-game improvement in the win column.
Green Bay Packers (7-10): Coming off an 8-9 season with departed legend Aaron Rodgers, all eyes are on new QB1 Jordan Love, who has one unremarkable start in four NFL seasons. He’ll face the unavoidable pressure of extending a three-decade heritage of quarterbacking excellence behind Rodgers and his predecessor, Brett Favre. Both had strong maiden seasons as the starter, though neither took the Pack to the playoffs. Remains to be seen how much leeway Love gets at a time when young passers don’t tend to get a lot of slack. It would help if Green Bay proves it's a much better running and defensive team than was displayed in 2022. Might not help that Love and Co. will only play at Lambeau Field three times prior to November.
Minnesota Vikings (7-10): They won the division last year with a glittering 13-4 record, however a regression to the mean appears especially inevitable for a crew that was somehow outscored overall during the 2022 season – its average margin of defeat 22.3 points. Since then, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, LB Eric Kendricks and OLB Za'Darius Smith were among those purged. The Vikes should still be able to score at a good clip, but new DC Brian Flores, in particular, has his work cut out for him.
NFC SOUTH
(4) New Orleans Saints (9-8): They’ve gone 16-18 in two years post-Drew Brees, middling quarterback play the primary culprit for such mediocrity. Some will argue new QB1 Derek Carr exemplifies mediocrity at his position – yet he should offer an upgrade in a division that had no team with a winning record in 2022, all four clubs now undergoing changes behind center. Carr instantly becomes the most accomplished passer in the division and will be backed by the best defense he’s ever played with. And even if RB Alvin Kamara is suspended after pleading no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace for his role in a 2022 fight in Las Vegas, New Orleans’ run game should be in good hands with RBs Jamaal Williams and third-rounder Kendre Miller. Anything oft-injured WR Michael Thomas provides is gravy.
(7) Atlanta Falcons (9-8): Third-year coach Arthur Smith doesn’t get sufficient credit for getting the most from his talent – and Atlanta hasn’t had much while going 7-10 each of the past two seasons. Second-year QB Desmond Ridder is an obvious X-factor but went 2-2 in a late-season audition as a rookie. But he’ll operate behind a top-tier line and with WR Drake London, healthy TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson – he projects as a top candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors – at his disposal. Last year’s 27th-ranked defense still looks iffy but should be better at every level with veterans like DL Calais Campbell, LB Kaden Elliss and S Jessie Bates III coming aboard. Toss in what’s statistically the league’s easiest schedule, and the Dirty Birds could indeed be playoff bound for the first time since 2017. (Note: The Saints win the NFC South in this projection due to a superior record in divisional games.)
Carolina Panthers (7-10): Very few holes in this lineup, if not very many stars – though No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young is expected to become one, perhaps sooner than later if the 22-year-old (as of Monday) quarterback and new HC Frank Reich quickly fall into a groove. If Young and some of the other inexperienced players who comprise this team’s enviable core progress more quickly than expected, the NFC South crown shouldn’t be out of the question.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-12): Tom Brady’s retirement brings Tampa's three-year party to a close … and it was already winding down last season, when the Bucs limped to the division title with an 8-9 mark. Expect a far more balanced offense post-TB12 – though no telling what that means with rookie coordinator Dave Canales, a virtually unrecognizable line, an unproven group of runners and QB Baker Mayfield, now on his fourth team in little over a year, presumably the at the helm. A defense that was largely responsible for this club’s Super Bowl 55 walkover has hardly been elite since, but the interior line pairing of Vita Vea and first-rounder Calijah Kancey could unlock something special.
NFC WEST
(2) San Francisco 49ers (11-6): It’s tempting to be bullish about a team that’s reached the NFC championship game three of the past four seasons and features, arguably, the league’s preeminent offensive mind in HC Kyle Shanahan. Oh, and a full season with RB Christian McCaffrey and a motivated Deebo Samuel – not to mention the addition of DT Javon Hargrave to last year’s No. 1 defense – only fuels enthusiasm in the Bay Area. But … how long will it take QB Brock Purdy to settle in after missing the offseason following elbow surgery and his Week 1 availability still in some doubt? Will the offensive line struggle after the departure of RT Mike McGlinchey during free agency? And what will the loss of coordinator DeMeco Ryans mean for that swarming defense? Another slow start certainly isn’t out of the question for a team that was 4-4 coming out of its bye in 2022.
(5) Seattle Seahawks (10-7): Rejuvenated on both sides of the ball thanks to the draft bounty brought from last year’s trade of QB Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll’s team is very much starting to resemble the one that won a Super Bowl a decade ago – what with the makings of a loaded secondary, deep D-line, LB Bobby Wagner (again) lording over the defense, a running game that should pound relentlessly and a quarterback (Geno Smith now) who keeps things moving with a minimum of mistakes … at least based on the 32-year-old’s 2022 breakout. And, with first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba joining WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the passing game should be far more formidable than Seattle’s 2013 forebears. The 49ers have very little margin for error with the Seahawks seemingly on a steep ascent.
Los Angeles Rams (7-10): DL Aaron Donald, QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp missed a combined 22 games last year as the Rams crumbled to 5-12, the worst record ever for a reigning Super Bowl champion. Assuming that trio is healthy, LA should again be competitive … if this team can score 30+ points a week due to a stripped-down D that has almost nothing beyond its three-time Defensive Player of the Year.
Arizona Cardinals (2-15): Even if volatile QB Kyler Murray was 100%, a team undergoing regime change amid the loss of established veterans like WR DeAndre Hopkins and DE J.J. Watt would look quite suspect coming off a four-win season. Owners of Houston’s first-round pick next spring, the Cards could have a legitimate shot at selecting No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2024 draft.
AFC EAST
(1) Buffalo Bills (13-4): The expectations last year were outsized and unrealized. But if OLB Von Miller’s Week 12 knee injury didn’t cripple this team beyond repair, then the emotional toll exacted by S Damar Hamlin’s terrifying on-field collapse five weeks later certainly seemed to. Hamlin has made a remarkable recovery, and Miller should be playing his usual complement of snaps when Buffalo really needs him – when winter hits and during the playoffs. S Jordan Poyer is also back, and his new teammates include DE Leonard Floyd, RB Damien Harris and first-round TE Dalton Kincaid. Assuming everything remains on the rails with sometimes enigmatic WR Stefon Diggs, this team could do significant damage while perhaps spending far more time under the radar during the regular season.
(5) New York Jets (12-5): They were in the thick of the AFC wild-card race well into December until the league’s worst quarterback play torpedoed them with a season-ending six-game losing streak. That won’t be the case in 2023 amid the arrival of Rodgers, coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, WR Allen Lazard and other former Packers who are implementing an offense that helped the four-time MVP to two of those awards in 2020 and 2021. A merely passable offense will be a boon to a defense that ranked fourth overall last year despite getting little help. The readiness of second-year RB Breece Hall (ACL) and a challenging schedule will likely be early obstacles. But plugging Rodgers into this situation seems for more akin to Brady joining the Bucs or Stafford going to the Rams than the disastrous first year of Wilson’s marriage to the Broncos in 2022. If that proves remotely true, the Jets will have the best quarterback in club history (sorry, Joe Namath) and their first Super Bowl trip in 55 years.
(7) Miami Dolphins (11-6): Naturally, so much rides on the health of fourth-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was the league’s highest-rated passer (105.5) in 2022, when he missed four starts and most of a fifth battling concussive effects. But if he’s right, an offense with so many explosive play makers should pile up points – especially if rookie Devon Achane can help kickstart the run game. Yet Miami, a wild-card entry during HC Mike McDaniel’s first season, should make its biggest leap on defense as veteran coordinator Vic Fangio takes command of an 18th-ranked but talented crew that welcomes Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey and will have OLB Bradley Chubb for a full season.
New England Patriots (7-10): The defense should be typically stout, and the offense again has a bona fide coordinator with the return of Bill O’Brien. But it doesn’t appear he’s working with much in the way of primo weaponry aside from RB Rhamondre Stevenson. This could be a make-or-break season for third-year QB Mac Jones … and possibly even for HC Bill Belichick, who’s on the hot seat according to a report from NBC Sports Boston. And BB, now 25-26 since Brady’s free agent departure in 2020, is very much in jeopardy of suffering his first last-place finish since 2000 (his first year in Foxborough) given how much it seems this roster has fallen behind the rest of the division.
AFC NORTH
(2) Cincinnati Bengals (12-5): Yes, they’re breaking in new starting safeties and face a tough schedule that includes out-of-division road games at Tennessee, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Kansas City. But Joe Burrow, PFF’s top-ranked quarterback in 2022, could very well be primed for an MVP turn with the league’s best three-receiver set still at his disposal following a season when Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd all missed time. Perhaps more important, LT Orlando Brown Jr. should further stabilize an offensive line that was once again in shreds by the time last season’s AFC championship game rolled around.
(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-6): Now financially secure, expectations have probably never been grander for QB Lamar Jackson, now four years removed from his MVP season and coming off two campaigns he was unable to finish after missing 10 collective starts since 2021. Yet it remains to be seen how he’ll adjust to new coordinator Todd Monken’s offense, though the spread system has been likened to the one in which Jackson won the Heisman Trophy at Louisville. This ain’t college, but Jackson has never had this kind of wideout talent at his disposal in the NFL, veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-rounder Zay Flowers possibly vying to become this franchise’s first Pro Bowler at the position. Oddly, the Ravens’ top concern might be vulnerability on defense, where there’s a lack of depth at corner and questions along the front. (Note: A Week 17 win over Miami gives Baltimore the No. 6 seed in this projection.)
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6): Maybe 11 wins feel overly optimistic at first blush given the conference gauntlet and the especially unforgiving AFC North. But consider that the Steelers closed 2022 with a four-game win streak – salvaging HC Mike Tomlin’s perfect streak without a sub-.500 season – and that was with rookie QB Kenny Pickett, OLB T.J. Watt out nearly half the season and RB Najee Harris not quite resembling the player who was so productive as a rookie in 2021. And with likely future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson and second-rounder Joey Porter Jr. aboard to solidify the corners for a pass defense that slipped to a No. 19 ranking, a two-game improvement from 9-8 ought to be perfectly achievable. (Note: An inferior record in conference games, compared to both Baltimore and Miami, eliminates Pittsburgh from wild-card contention in this projection.)
Cleveland Browns (10-7): This outlook – and, in all likelihood, HC Kevin Stefanski’s job – are dependent on QB Deshaun Watson reverting to his Pro Bowl peak and progressing past his 2022 showing, when he looked like a poor fit for Cleveland’s offense and was subpar in what amounted to a knocking-off-the-rust, preseason-caliber performance. Continuity can only help … as would the emergence of Elijah Moore or David Bell into another dependable wide receiver. And don’t be surprised if DE Myles Garrett, now playing opposite fellow pass rusher Za'Darius Smith, makes a run at the single-season sack record (22½).
AFC SOUTH
(4) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7): They certainly appear on the upswing after their first division title since 2017 broke a string of four consecutive last-place finishes. And QB Trevor Lawrence and an ascending offense should only continue to trend upward if Calvin Ridley proves to be a WR1 after sitting out 2022 due to a gambling suspension. The Jags could really run away with an eminently winnable division if recent first-round defenders Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and K'Lavon Chaisson contribute something closer to what’s expected of them than what they’ve provided to date. Also noteworthy that the Jaguars will become the first team to play in London twice in one season – in consecutive weeks and with no bye immediately following – but it should be interesting to see what (if any) effect that has for a team so accustomed to playing abroad.
Tennessee Titans (8-9): Even with the signing of Hopkins, prospects for this club feel rather muted. But let’s not forget the Titans were the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed in 2021 and were 7-3 before the wheels came off last season … when they would have salvaged the division championship had they been able to win at Jacksonville in Week 18. Difficult to picture any team coached by Mike Vrabel coming completely unglued. Yet also tough to foresee what happens with RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill – he missed five games in 2022 – entering contract years, a scenario that seems to invite the possibility that Henry could be traded before the Halloween deadline while leading to the potential promotion of rookie QB Will Levis down the stretch.
Houston Texans (6-11): Maybe their first franchise quarterback (rookie C.J. Stroud) post-Watson? Maybe their first impact defender (rookie Will Anderson) post J.J. Watt? Maybe their first entrenched head coach (Ryans) post-O’Brien? For a team that hasn’t won more than four games in any of the past three seasons, a half-dozen victories would most certainly qualify as significant progress.
Indianapolis Colts (4-13): They’ve finally made a long-term investment under center with promising first-round QB Anthony Richardson, though he doesn’t come with nearly the amount of big-time college experience as Young or Stroud. Pessimism should morph into optimism in Indy in 2023 even if the standings don't reflect much change. But expect the Colts to become tougher to deal with the more reps Richardson gets. And he should benefit from being paired with rookie HC Shane Steichen, who helped Hurts blossom into a superstar in 2022.
AFC WEST
(3) Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): They followed up their last Super Bowl victory, following the 2019 season, with another AFC title in 2020. That could certainly happen again, and maybe the Chiefs even become the first team to successfully go back to back in 19 years. But the impediments will be many. As previously noted, the conference is nasty. A first-place schedule that includes the entire AFC East is forbidding. Reigning MVP QB Patrick Mahomes will be playing in front of a pair of new tackles (Donovan Smith, Jawaan Taylor). OC Eric Bieniemy is also off to Washington, though Matt Nagy returns to the role he had when Mahomes was a rookie in 2017. Speaking of 2017, that’s the last time K.C. won fewer than 12 games – Mahomes only started once that year – so I may be selling the Chiefs short even in a year when they have to play at Jacksonville, at New Jersey (against the Jets), in Germany (against the Dolphins) and catch the Bills coming off their bye and the Bengals on a short week.
Denver Broncos (10-7): If new HC Sean Payton is reason enough to believe they can recover from last year’s debacle, then consider the return of WR Tim Patrick – a year removed from a torn ACL – an offensive line fortified by free agency and a leaner Wilson under center. And better luck has to surface for a team not only waylaid by injuries in 2022 but one that lost nine of its 12 defeats by seven points or fewer.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-10): Glass half-full, they progressed to postseason in 2022. Glass half-empty, the past two seasons under HC Brandon Staley have concluded with unmitigated disasters, worthy of the Bolts’ tortured history. Maybe Staley’s underachieving defense, which completely collapsed in the playoff loss to Jacksonville, improves. Maybe QB Justin Herbert fully blooms into an MVP candidate under first-year OC Kellen Moore. Maybe they won’t fold under the pressure of playing six prime-time games. Yep, per usual, probably too many “maybes” for the Chargers to overcome.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): It appears new QB1 Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) is finally cleared to practice heading into camp, the kind of good news that’s generally been in short supply around this team for most of the past two decades. Still, despite ties to HC Josh McDaniels, it feels like Jimmy G. and Co. face quite an uphill battle to respectability given the state of the Silver and Black's defense and the potential absence of disenfranchised franchise-tagged RB Josh Jacobs. A schedule that begins with three of four on the road and concludes with matchups against three 2022 playoff outfits in December hardly helps. Super Bowl 58 may be in Vegas, but the Raiders will need tickets for admission.
NFC playoffs
Wild card: (2) 49ers def. (7) Falcons; (3) Lions def. (6) Cowboys; (5) Seahawks def. (4) Saints
Divisional: (3) Lions def. (2) 49ers; (1) Eagles def. (5) Seahawks
NFC championship game: (1) Eagles def. (3) Lions
AFC playoffs
Wild card: (2) Bengals def. (7) Dolphins; (3) Chiefs def. (6) Ravens; (5) Jets def. (4) Jaguars
Divisional: (2) Bengals def. (3) Chiefs; (5) Jets def. (1) Bills
AFC championship game: (5) Jets def. (2) Bengals
Super Bowl 58 (Las Vegas)
Eagles def. Jets
***Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.